Net overseas migration: from shutdown to surge

Before COVID, Australia quietly relied on migration as a big driver of population growth. More people arrived than left each year, and it all ticked along in the background. That flipped during border closures, then snapped back hard once borders reopened.

According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), net overseas migration in the 2024-25 financial year was 306,000 people, down from 429,000 the year before and below the record 538,000 in 2022-23. Annual net migration actually peaked at around 556,000 in the year ending September 2023, then eased off over seven consecutive quarters as arrivals fell and departures rose.

In other words: there was a massive "catch-up" surge after borders reopened, and now things are cooling, but still running higher than the old normal.

Who’s coming in - and on what visas?

The intake isn’t just "more people" - it’s a very specific mix. The ABS shows that in 2024-25 there were about 568,000 migrant arrivals, down from 661,000 the year before. The single biggest group? Temporary students – 157,000 people.

On top of students, there’s a big flow of:

• Temporary skilled workers - filling gaps in health, construction, tech, and more.
• Working holiday makers - heavily used in hospitality, tourism, and agriculture.
• Permanent migrants - mostly in the skilled and family streams.
• Returning Australian citizens and permanent residents – counted in the arrivals data too.

Over the last couple of years, temporary visa holders have dominated the arrival numbers, which is a big shift from the old "permanent migrant" mental picture.

Where are migrants coming from?

The country mix has changed as well. Recent data show the top countries of birth for overseas migrants include India, China, Australia (returning citizens), the United Kingdom and New Zealand.

India and China are especially strong in:

• International students
• Skilled workers in IT, engineering, health, and business

Other key contributors include the Philippines, Nepal, Vietnam, South Africa, Malaysia and Sri Lanka - often feeding into health care, aged care, trades, and hospitality.

Which industries are migrants working in?

Migrants aren’t spread evenly across the economy. They’re heavily concentrated in sectors where Australia has long-running skills shortages. Government and labour-market reports consistently highlight:

• Health care and social assistance - nurses, aged-care workers, disability support, allied health.
• Education and training - teachers and early childhood educators, especially in regional areas.
• Construction and infrastructure - trades, engineers, project managers.
• Hospitality and tourism - chefs, cooks, café and restaurant staff, hotel workers.
• Tech and engineering - software engineers, cybersecurity, data roles, mechanical and electrical engineers.

Migration policy has been deliberately tilted toward these shortage areas, with skilled visas and student pathways designed to plug gaps in the workforce.

What happened during COVID - who left?

When borders closed, the tap didn’t just turn off for arrivals - a lot of people left. Temporary visa holders, in particular, were hit hard because many weren’t eligible for income support.

Parliamentary and ABS analysis shows that around hundreds of thousands of temporary migrants - including students, working holiday makers and temporary workers – departed during the pandemic period and didn’t immediately return. That exodus smashed sectors like hospitality, tourism, agriculture and parts of the care economy, and it’s a big reason those industries are still short of staff.

Departures now: more people leaving than before

The latest ABS release shows that migrant departures have climbed. In 2024-25, there were about 263,000 migrant departures, up from 232,000 the year before - a 13% increase.

That total includes:

• Australian citizens moving overseas long-term.
• Permanent residents leaving.
• Temporary visa holders finishing study, work, or working holidays and heading elsewhere.

So, Australia isn’t just "bringing people in" - it’s also losing more people each year than it did before COVID.

Australians' vs temporary visa holders: who’s actually leaving?

When people talk about "Australians leaving", they often picture citizens packing up for London or Bali. That does happen, but they’re not the main group driving the departure numbers.

Long-term, the bulk of departures are temporary visa holders - students finishing degrees, working holiday makers rotating out, and temporary skilled workers whose visas end. Australians and permanent residents are a smaller slice of the total, even though their numbers have nudged up since COVID.

The net effect is this: Australia is still gaining population from migration overall, but the churn - people coming and going - is much higher than most people realise.

Why did migrant numbers spike after COVID?

The big post-COVID migration spike wasn’t random. It came from a few clear drivers:

• Catch-up after border closures - people who would have arrived in 2020-21 came later, once borders reopened. The ABS explicitly links the record net migration in 2022-23 to this catch-up effect.
• International students returning in force - students became the largest single group of arrivals, with 157,000 in 2024-25 alone.
• Skills shortages - health, aged care, construction, trades, tech and education all needed workers, and migration settings were tweaked to help fill those gaps.
• Policy tilt toward temporary visas - it’s faster and more flexible to bring people in on temporary visas, so they now make up a big share of arrivals.
• Returning residents - a chunk of the "migrant arrivals" are actually Australians and New Zealanders coming back after being stuck or based overseas.

Put simply: the spike was a mix of delayed demand, deliberate policy, and people coming back, not just a sudden decision to "open the floodgates".

How does this tie into skills shortages?

Australia’s skills shortages are still broad and stubborn. National assessments show persistent gaps in health, aged care, education, construction, trades, engineering, tech and hospitality. Migration is one of the levers being used to ease those shortages - especially through skilled visas and student pathways that lead into in-demand jobs.

At the same time, higher migration puts pressure on housing, infrastructure and services if planning and investment don’t keep pace. That tension - needing workers but struggling with capacity - is at the heart of a lot of current public debate.

So what’s the bottom line?

Australia’s migration story right now is messy but explainable. Net migration surged after COVID because of catch-up arrivals, students and skills policy, and it’s now easing back but still running high. Most new arrivals are temporary - especially students - and most departures are temporary visa holders too. India, China and a handful of other countries dominate the intake, feeding into sectors where Australia simply doesn’t have enough workers.

For anyone trying to make sense of it - from local communities to councils to small businesses - the key is to look past the headlines and into the mix: who’s coming, who’s leaving, what visas they’re on, and which jobs they’re actually doing. That’s where the real story lives.